A market intelligence company is predicting that the iPhone market share will rise to 23.1% in the final quarter of 2021, based on supply chain data of smartphone production levels. The increase is quite significant considering last quarter’s share of just 15.9% percent. What’s more is that the rise will lead Apple to take the crown from Samsung in terms of market share.

The growth can be owed to strong holiday quarter demand and better supply chain management when compared to competitors (via 9to5Mac, TrendForce). But despite improvements, there is no doubt that semiconductor shortages are continuing to affect smartphone sales in general.

As for improvements in smartphone demand, most of it can be owed to the peak season for e-commerce promotional activities in the second half of this year. While easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Southeast Asia did lead to the resumption of factory operations in countries like Vietnam, significant shortages of components including 4G SoCs, low-end 5G SoCs, display panel driver ICs, etc. have persisted. These constraints are holding back smartphone production in H2 2021.

TrendForce further said that Apple’s iPhone 13 launch was clearly a big success. Thanks to the three models, the total iPhone production for 3Q21 registered a QoQ increase of 22.6% to 51.5 million units. With this result, Apple was also able to climb to second place in the global ranking.

More good days lie ahead for the Cupertino-based company though with the present holiday quarter. Supply chain reports on production levels suggest Samsung, Oppo, Xiaomi, and Vivo are all likely to see their market share fall, while Apple will see its share grow from 15.9% last quarter to 23.2% the current one. This will be enough to overtake Samsung and take the overall lead in the global smartphone market.

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