AppleInsider has spotted a research note drafted by Daniel Ives from Wedbush Securities and sent to investors. In the note, the financial analyst disclosed that his securities firm was lowering iPhone revenue estimates for the 2020 fiscal year by 14%. He also revealed that the firm was also lowering estimates by 10% for 2021.
The review was necessary to reflect the change in near-term consumer demand. It also reflects the lockdown conditions globally and a “negative economic backdrop.” Ives opines that the COVID-19 pandemic won’t prevent iPhone users looking to upgrade their models from doing so but will affect new buyers and those hoping to switch to an iPhone as they would want to wait or not get one at all.
“We now assume only the installed base consumers currently in the window of an upgrade opportunity that have not upgraded their iPhones in more than 42 months purchase a new phone over the next 18 to 24 months. Currently, we estimate that ~350 million of Apple’s 925 million iPhones worldwide are in this upgrade window, as we assume going forward in a more draconian scenario that minimal new smartphone activity takes place beside this segment of Cupertino’s massive installed base, Ives wrote”
The 14% estimated drop in revenue for 2020 is said to bring Apple’s estimated revenue down to $131 billion from Wedbush’s earlier estimate of $152 billion. The company also projects 172 million iPhones will be sold this year as against 200 million earlier forecasted.
Apart from the drop in iPhone sales, Ives equally reduced his firm’s estimates for Apple’s Services, AirPods, Mac, iPad, and other revenue to $251 billion in total for the 2020 fiscal year. The pre-COVID19 estimate was $285 billion.
EDITOR’S PICK: Xiaomi’s Aqara officially unveils its range of smart home products in the US
The financial analyst predicts that Apple’s revenue should make a “modest gradual recovery” in the 2021 fiscal year. Next year’s total revenue is predicted to reach $282 billion down from $309 billion previously forecasted. He broke the new $282 billion revenue estimate to be comprised of $147 billion in iPhone revenue with 190 million units sold, including early sales of the 5G “iPhone 12. Here, Ives hinted that he doesn’t expect the “iPhone 12” to ship in September which is the last month of Apple’s fiscal year 2020. He hinted that the launch could get pushed into October or November because of continuing supply chain challenges.
“Our scenario now assumes the 5G iPhones do not get released this Fall due to the global lockdown-like conditions with the supply chain in Asia still on a path to normalization,” said Ives. “Clearly, anything can happen and this stress test exercise on Apple’s model could prove to be conservative or not aggressive enough given this fluid global pandemic.”
On the whole, the analyst’s projections are predicated on a coronavirus recovery before July. If the pandemic extends longer than expected, the valuation will have to be revisited, according to Ives.
UP NEXT: OnePlus 8 TPU Case goes on sale on GizTop; confirms design
(via)
