The iPhone Air arrived as Apple’s slimmest flagship yet, but talk of weak demand and slashed production quickly threatened to overshadow its debut. Now, a major analyst firm is pushing back, saying output is holding steady despite reports to the contrary.
In an October 26 investor note seen by AppleInsider, TD Cowen analysts said their supply chain checks show “no changes” to iPhone Air production for 2025. The firm’s data points to stable forecasts — around 3 million units for the September quarter and 7 million for the December quarter. Overall iPhone 17 series production remains at roughly 54 million and 79 million units for the same periods, suggesting solid demand across the lineup.
That view directly contradicts a string of more pessimistic reports earlier this month. On October 17, Japan’s Mizuho Securities claimed Apple had reduced iPhone Air production by a million units, shifting focus to other models instead. Days later, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo backed that narrative, citing scaled-back capacity.
TD Cowen, however, says its conclusions come from direct supplier verification rather than anonymous chain chatter. The firm suggests rival reports may have misread Apple’s short-term manufacturing adjustments. Cupertino’s just-in-time system often shifts builds within weeks based on early sales data — especially when Pro models outsell expectations at launch.
The iPhone Air occupies a unique middle ground in Apple’s lineup: slimmer and lighter than the Pro but priced higher than the base model at $999. Its launch faced minor headwinds, including eSIM regulatory delays in China and early complaints about its smaller 3,149mAh battery compared to the Pro’s 4,252mAh (eSIM model). Even so, TD Cowen’s note points to consistent output and confidence in the model’s long-term performance.
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The Air’s projected 10 million-unit total for this cycle is modest next to the 50+ million Pro models, but it aligns with Apple’s segmented strategy. As the holiday quarter unfolds, real sales numbers will tell whether Apple’s ultra-thin gamble pays off — or if the early skepticism sticks.
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