Apple‘s grip on the Chinese market, once a major growth engine for the iPhone giant, seems to be loosening. According to Ming-Chi Kuo, a prominent industry analyst, the iPhone has seen a significant decline in sales in the mainland, and Kuo’s insights suggest the trend might not reverse anytime soon.
Kuo’s report reveals that iPhone shipments in China fell by 10-12% year-over-year in December 2024, even as the overall smartphone market in the country remained stable.
The decline is likely due to the perceived lack of innovation in Apple’s latest models. The iPhone 16 series introduced only minor changes, such as a slightly modified camera lens bump that left consumers in China and beyond unimpressed.
“In December 2024, overall smartphone shipments in China were about flat, iPhone shipments dropped by about 10-12% YoY, reflecting a continued slide in Apple’s Chinese market share.” – says Ming-Chi Kuo.
Apple’s planning for 2025
As a result, Kuo says that Apple has taken a cautious approach toward 2025 production planning for iPhones. Projections for the first half of 2025 (1H25) indicate a year-on-year (YoY) shipment decline of about 6%.
This follows a relatively flat shipment performance in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), which Kuo attributes to preemptive stocking in January ahead of anticipated tariffs under the Trump administration. The second quarter (2Q25), however, is expected to see a noticeable dip.
Looking ahead, Apple’s rumored ultra-thin iPhone 17 and foldable iPhone models, slated for the second half of 2025, could face additional hurdles. Both devices are expected to feature eSIM-only designs, a challenge in China, where carrier support for eSIM remains limited. Kuo notes that unless Apple adjusts the designs to accommodate physical SIM cards, these models may struggle to gain traction.
Even the launch of the iPhone SE4 in mid-2025 might not turn the tide. Kuo suggests it’s unlikely to offset broader shipment declines due to its limited impact on the overall lineup.
For 2024, Kuo estimates iPhone shipments will total approximately 220 million units, with a slight increase to 220–225 million in 2025—both figures falling short of market expectations of over 240 million units annually.
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