Apple has been facing a challenging landscape in China, with iPhone sales continuing to decline. Recent reports indicate that iPhone shipments in December 2024 dropped by 10–12 percent compared to the same period in 2023, highlighting the company’s waning market share in one of its largest markets. While the overall smartphone market in China has remained stable, Apple appears to be losing ground to local competitors who offer more feature-rich devices at competitive prices.
2025 iPhones may not help save Apple’s weakening position in China
Looking ahead, Apple’s cautious approach to production planning for 2025 reflects its awareness of these challenges. Even the launch of the iPhone SE 4 (aka iPhone 16e), anticipated in the first half of 2025, may not be enough to reverse this trend. With shipments for the first half of 2025 expected to decline by 6 percent year-on-year, it’s evident that Apple is bracing for a tough year.
The iPhone 17 series, expected in September 2025, includes models with bold design innovations such as an ultra-thin form factor and a foldable variant. While these features could appeal to a niche audience, they come with potential drawbacks. The ultra-thin iPhone (dubbed iPhone 17 Slim by rumor mill), with parts as slim as 5.5mm, and the foldable model may rely solely on eSIM technology. This could pose challenges in the Chinese market, where eSIM-only devices are not widely supported.
Moreover, the ultra-thin iPhone 17 may ship in higher volumes than the iPhone Plus, but its impact on overall sales may be limited due to downgraded components, high pricing, and a user experience that doesn’t substantially differentiate it from current offerings.
As competition intensifies and structural barriers like eSIM adoption persist, Apple’s ability to regain momentum in China will depend on aligning its future products more closely with local market preferences while offering meaningful upgrades to justify its premium pricing.
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