The Xiaomi 17 lineup launched in China on September 25 with strong buzz, but fresh analysis suggests sales momentum may already be slowing. According to Ming-Chi Kuo, shipments for the Xiaomi 17 series are now expected to come in below those of last year’s Xiaomi 15, with weaker-than-expected demand for the base model dragging the numbers down.
Xiaomi introduced three models this year—the Xiaomi 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max—highlighting Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5, larger batteries (up to 7,500mAh), and Leica’s camera tuning with 16.5EV dynamic range. The Pro and Pro Max also brought standout touches such as a 2.9-inch rear AMOLED “Magic Back Screen.” Early response was positive, with strong pre-orders and launch-day excitement.
But Kuo’s latest survey points to a downward revision in shipments, with estimates cut by around 20% from the initial 10 million target. That would put total sales below the Xiaomi 15 series’ roughly 8 million units. The key challenge is the standard Xiaomi 17, which was expected to contribute more than half of overall shipments but is instead accounting for only 15–20% of demand.
At the same time, Apple’s iPhone 17 appears to be eating into Xiaomi’s base-model sales in China. Unlike previous years, Apple’s entry model has reportedly received stronger-than-expected uptake thanks to upgrades such as a 120Hz display.
If National Day Golden Week (October 1–7) fails to reverse the trend, Xiaomi may resort to price adjustments to stimulate sales. For now, Pro and Pro Max models are holding steadier, but they’re unlikely to offset the weaker base model.
Kuo notes the outlook applies only to China, where Xiaomi holds about 15% of the premium market. Globally, only the Xiaomi 17 and a rumored Ultra are expected to launch, which could help limit the impact of this slowdown.
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