Samsung has led the global smartphone market for so long that it’s practically tradition. But if the latest forecast from Counterpoint Research plays out, that streak is ending — and sooner than you’d think.
Counterpoint expects Apple to climb back to the No. 1 position by the end of this year, a title it hasn’t held since 2011. Overall smartphone shipments are only predicted to rise about 3.3% next year, yet Apple’s growth is projected to more than triple that pace at roughly 10%. That would give the company a 19.4% share of the global market — just enough to push Samsung into second place despite its own solid 4.6% growth.
And if Apple takes the crown, analysts don’t see it giving it up anytime soon. The projections suggest the company could stay out front through at least 2029.
A few major trends are working in Apple’s favor. The iPhone 17 line is performing strongly in key regions, including China — a market that has been notoriously difficult for Western brands recently. On top of that, we’ve hit a massive upgrade wave: smartphones bought during the pandemic are now aging out, driving millions to replace cracked screens and fading batteries.
There’s also the second-hand factor. From 2023 to mid-2025, roughly 358 million used iPhones traded hands globally. And once someone gets into the iPhone ecosystem, even through a refurbished device, they tend to stay there.
The road ahead looks just as aggressive. Apple is widely rumored to be preparing its first foldable iPhone for 2026 — a direct challenge to Samsung’s current dominance in the premium foldable market. A lower-cost iPhone 17e is reportedly on the way as well, potentially taking over the SE’s role or launching a new “Slim” family to court budget-minded shoppers. Then in 2027, Apple is expected to introduce a major design overhaul. If these forecasts prove accurate, next year could break Samsung’s reign.
Don’t miss a thing! Join our Telegram community for instant updates and grab our free daily newsletter for the best tech stories!
For more daily updates, please visit our News Section.
(Source: Counterpoint Research)
Comments